BULAWAYO – Zimbabwe’s main opposition Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) would win elections if they were held today, according to a new opinion poll.

The year-old party’s leader Nelson Chamisa enjoys a 13-point lead on President Emmerson Mnangagwa, according to the polling by conducted for The Brenthurst Foundation by independent London-based research group SABI Strategy.

The survey results were obtained through a nationally representative sample of 1,000 registered voters, the pollsters said. The voters, weighted to national statistics on gender, age and province, answered a 15-minute questionnaire over the phone between January 18 and January 27.

The potential voters were asked the question: “Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, which candidate will you vote for?”

The survey showed Chamisa would win 53 percent of the vote to Mnangagwa’s 40 percent among those who say they will definitely vote. Seven percent said they would vote for other candidates.

On which party they would vote for, 52 percent said CCC, 40 percent said they would vote Zanu PF and eight percent said they would vote for other parties.

The pollsters said there was a 4 percent margin of error.

Some 42 percent of survey respondents said they had voted for Zanu PF in 2018, with 40 percent saying they had voted for the CCC’s predecessor MDC Alliance, suggesting a sea-change in voter sentiment as Zimbabwe’s economic collapse accelerates under Mnangagwa.

But 47 percent of voters believe the 2023 election will not be free and fair compared to just 38 percent who say it will be free and fair. “Cheating in the counting process” was cited as the biggest threat to a free and fair election (41 percent) with “the government abusing its power” cited by 29 percent and “security force violence” cited by 21 percent.

Asked why they were shifting their support, voters cited weak leadership, corruption, bad policies and future prospects as the main reasons.

Chamisa emerged as the public figure with the highest favourability score, scoring 59 percent to Mnangagwa who trailed with 43 percent, narrowly ahead of CCC MP and former finance minister Tendai Biti.

When it came to political parties, the CCC enjoyed a net-favourability (subtracting negative ratings from positive ratings) of 31 percent, way ahead of Zanu PF’s -4 percent.

More voters believed the CCC would govern more effectively with 47 percent favouring the opposition party compared to 33 percent favouring Zanu PF.

MDC-T leader Douglas Mwonzora had the highest negative favourability rating of any politician (55 percent) followed by finance minister Mthuli Ncube (47 percent).

Some 51 percent of respondents said they “would be happy to see a coalition govern Zimbabwe” compared to 39 percent who are against the idea.

The survey also reveals that an astonishing 46 percent of Zimbabweans would “leave Zimbabwe immediately if they had the opportunity to do so” and just 4 percent said they would stay.