IT’S a bit odd, isn’t it? Zimbabwe has been here before, it feels like it, it looks like it, and it certainly smells like it.
Hear me out. A senior statesman has entered the second of his final two terms in power. His powerful deputy, a man with deep and respected links to the military and China waits in the shadows. You can almost say this deputy put the president in power.
There is even another deputy as well, a second vice president, well, sort of. He has great establishment links and comes from a minority tribe. But nobody takes him that seriously. Surely all this sounds familiar, doesn’t it?
Well, it’s because the year is 2017. Robert Mugabe is President, his deputy is Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, and the other guy, Vice President Mphoko.
Except that this is not 2017. Its 2024 and Mnangagwa is President. He is into his second and final term. Constantino Chiwenga is his formidable deputy, and the man who ensured Mnangagwa became president, saving him after he had been poisoned at a rally, and ordering tanks on to the streets in a bloodless coup.
The other deputy is Kembo Mohadi. He is not a former intelligence operative, but rather a former military man. But nobody takes him seriously. In this marriage, there is the bride and the groom – Mohadi is the flower girl.
There is more.
Back in 2017, there was talk of Mugabe ruling until he died. His wife Grace even suggested he would rule from the grave – it was nonsense of course – but a lot of people supported the idea anyway. It is 2024 and there are murmurs about the current president’s second and final term being extended.
So, it does feel like Déjà vu, like Zimbabwe has been here before. Except that, it really is not.
Yes, succession is on the table again, but the roles have changed a bit.
During the early days of Mugabe’s final term, any discussions about who would replace him led to people bringing that topic up as ‘successionists’ – a dangerous noun to have on your back at the time.
This time around, not really.
Nobody will hunt you down for saying this is Mnangagwa’s final term.
Unlike Mugabe, Mnangagwa is also willing to entertain the conversation about succession. He has already given one interview to the country’s largest weekend paper, the Sunday Mail about it, telling them he is a constitutionalist, and he would follow the law of the land – if you didn’t know, the law says this is his final term.
It’s not the first time that Mnangagwa, a lawyer by training and a former Minister of Justice, has referred difficult and / or sensitive subjects to the law. Shortly after coming to power, he was quizzed about LGBTQ rights on Quest. He gave the same answer – that his actions will be guided by law.
When asked if he would campaign for gay rights, he said no – it would not be his place to campaign for a change of the constitution.
He suggested that those who want to change the law would be free to lobby for it, campaign for it, and try to meet the requirements needed to change that law.
That is Mnangagwa’s position. It was then. It is now.
His Sunday Mail interview left the very same impression as the Quest interview. As it is, the law says this is his final term. He is a constitutionalist and will follow the law.
That ought to have been the end of it right? No.
This is Zimbabwe, nothing is ever that simple.
It hasn’t helped that a new catchy slogan, “2030 vaMnangagwa vachitonga (Mnagagwa will still be in power in 2023)” is doing the rounds in its many variations.
It’s been repeated by a powerful Minister, members of parliament and other ruling party supporters.
But this is politics. Bizarre things are said every day and every other time.
In 2003, as American president George W Bush prepared to travel to Africa, Robert Mugabe appeared to threaten him, telling supporters at a rally that the “Yankee” must go home.
Americans were very sensitive at the time. 9-11 had just happened. America had just invaded Iraq and was fighting another war in Afghanistan against the Taliban. Persons who were close to events during the time who cannot be named to protect relationships say the Americans raised the matter diplomatically, looking to clarify if Mugabe’s threats were well meant. The response was that it is politics.
It was the second time that such a confrontation had happened. After the 9-11 attacks, the Americans had asked Mugabe, a strong supporter of Iran if he knew anything about the attacks and if he supported terrorists. A delegation flew to Harare at the time. It was that serious.
Like in 2003, it was made clear there were distinctions between stuff that is consumed at rallies and official policy.
Ok, what are people saying?
As is, there is no indication that Mnangagwa intends to rule beyond his two limits. Sources close to Mnangagwa, who like all other individuals spoken to for this story cannot be named to protect relationships, point towards not only his Sunday Mail interview, but also the law, which doesn’t allow him to benefit from any extension to term limits.
If anything, they say Mnangagwa may call for elections earlier than 2028. If this happened before Mnangagwa has served three years, then his new term would allow him to rule until 2029. This they say is because a term that is less than three years is not considered a full term. This is the only legal way.
Legal sources say some consideration has been put towards parliament extending its term beyond five years and then inviting Mnangagwa to stay on as President. But this suggestion they say is difficult because “Its legality is not clear. It appears unlawful”.
But perhaps, and even more crucially, there is the small matter of the powerful deputy. When the ruling party held rallies all over the country propping up slogans that Mugabe would rule from the grave and suggesting Grace Mugabe would take over, Emmerson Mnangagwa was unbothered.
As it is, Constantine Chiwenga has been equally unfazed. Perhaps, as I suspect, he understands that it’s just politics and at a rally, soundbites sell – however impractical they may be.
A lot is often said about Mnangagwa and Chiwenga’s relationship. Most of it is partial truths and outright lies. There is simply no tension between the two. Their relationship and bond are as solid as a rock. There is mutual trust and respect. They are not political rivals and succession is the last thing on their minds – it does not even make it to their daily discussions and briefs. They just aren’t at daggers drawn and they probably won’t be.
However, they rule over a people and a country that lives, in some parts, in the future. A country that although it feels like it has been here before – really hasn’t been. A country and a people that have been uncertain for long, be it about currency reforms, or policies, to the point where even as the law is black and white – most people will tell you, this is Zimbabwe, you just never know.
And they are right. It is succession. It is tricky and it has never happened before – at least not without twist and turn. In Zimbabwe, nobody knows what succession without drastic military action looks like – and they can’t be blamed for being nervous.
Maynard Manyowa is a journalist and documentary maker based in Manchester, England. @iAmKudaMaynard on X
