New poll puts Chamisa on cusp of outright victory in Zimbabwe

BULAWAYO – A new independent survey puts Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) leader Nelson Chamisa on the cusp of outright victory in Zimbabwe’s presidential elections due on August 23.

The 45-year-old would poll 47.6 percent of the vote, outpacing incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa, 80, who trails at 37.8 percent, according to the poll conducted by Zambia-headquartered Elite Africa Research.

To win a presidential election outright in Zimbabwe, a candidate must win 50 percent of the vote plus one vote. With a 2 percent margin of error, the survey puts Chamisa within touching distance of ending Zanu PF’s 43-year reign.

Conducted in June 2023, the survey used a random sample of 2,000 registered voters. The survey was proportionate to the country’s adult population and weighted by gender, urban and rural setting in all the provinces.

“ln answer to a question about voting intentions for a presidential candidate, 47,6 percent of respondents indicated support for Nelson Chamisa while 38.7 percent indicated support for current president Emmerson Mnangagwa,” the researchers said in their findings released on July 14.

Asked which party they would vote for if elections were to be held today, 47.7 percent said they would vote for CCC; 39.6 percent would vote Zanu PF; 1.2 percent said MDC; 2.2 percent were for other parties while 9.3 percent declined to respond.

Some 59.8 percent of the respondents said they hoped for a new government while 37 percent said they hoped for the same government when they were asked on the outcome they hoped for in the upcoming elections.

Elite Research Africa’s poll also showed 69.4 percent of Zimbabweans think the country is heading in the wrong direction and 77.5 percent think the economy is getting worse.

According to the survey, Mnangagwa and Zanu PF have net favourabilities of -2.6 percent and -2.7 percent respectively, while Chamisa and the CCC have net favourabilities of 29.6 percent and 28.6 percent respectively.

Elite Research Africa says it specialises on opinion polling, and social and market surveys.