2023 presidential election likely had no outright winner: independent poll analyst

BULAWAYO – Zimbabwe’s disputed 2023 presidential elections likely did not produce an outright winner, researchers say after analysing 84 percent of polling station returns.

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) has resisted pressure to publish online all the polling station returns known as V11 Forms. President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s challengers could not collect all the forms on election day after authorities arrested 39 election monitors in Harare on election eve, accusing them of planning to illegally announce election results.

In the vacuum, researcher Freeman Chari – who is based in the United States – created an online portal allowing Zimbabweans across the country to send in stamped V11 forms.

“We eventually were able to collate 10,250 polling stations which we could verify their results. These represent about 84 percent of all poling stations used,” Chari said when publishing the data on August 23, exactly a year after the election.

An analysis of the data shows President Emmerson Mnangagwa of Zanu PF ahead with 1,859,158 votes and main opposition rival Nelson Chamisa of the Citizens Coalition for Change with 1,750,804.

Chari acknowledged that most of the missing data was from Zanu PF strongholds in Mashonaland East, Central and West. They rejected a lot of V11s from these regions because they were “dubious” – most were not signed or stamped.

Even then, Chari says they are not convinced by ZEC’s official results showing Mnangagwa polling 52.60 percent (2,350,711 votes) to Chamisa’s 44.03 percent (1,967,343 votes). Instead, he believes a second round runoff was inevitable.

“I actually think no-one crossed the 50 percent + 1,” Chari told ZimLive. “Mnangagwa was averaging 170 votes per polling station, and Chamisa about 160. For them to get to the ZEC numbers on the 16 percent of the V11s we did not obtain, Mnangagwa had to average 220+ and Chamisa 90. Then factor in about 80,000 to 100,000 votes for the other candidates.”

Election observers condemned the election which was marred by voter intimidation and police restrictions on opposition rallies.

SEE THE PARTIAL POLLING STATION RESULTS: CLICK HERE